As news of sizeable rounds for companies like OpenAI and Anthropic hit the market, encouraging much debate on company valuations, VenCap thought you may be interested in our CIO, David Clark's, latest LinkedIn post on the topic.

💡 𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝗟𝗣𝘀 𝗦𝗵𝗼𝘂𝗹𝗱 𝗧𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗸 𝗔𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗔𝗜 "𝗕𝘂𝗯𝗯𝗹𝗲"

𝘐𝘵'𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘵𝘳𝘺𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘤𝘺𝘤𝘭𝘦 𝘰𝘳 𝘱𝘪𝘤𝘬 𝘸𝘪𝘯𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘴 - 𝘪𝘵'𝘴 𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘢𝘤𝘤𝘦𝘴𝘴, 𝘱𝘢𝘤𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘥𝘪𝘴𝘤𝘪𝘱𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘦.

"AI is in a bubble". That's the constant refrain from market commentators. And maybe it is. But every major technological revolution, from the railways to the Internet, looked like a bubble before it reshaped the global economy.

At VenCap International plc, we've seen this movie before. Speculation and over-investment aren't the end of the story - they're how new infrastructure gets built. As Carlota Perez wrote, financial capital lays the foundations that allow productive capital to realise the returns.

The truth is, 𝘄𝗲 𝗱𝗼𝗻’𝘁 𝗸𝗻𝗼𝘄 𝘄𝗵𝗲𝘁𝗵𝗲𝗿 𝗔𝗜 𝘁𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆 𝗶𝘀 𝗹𝗶𝗸𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗜𝗻𝘁𝗲𝗿𝗻𝗲𝘁 𝗶𝗻 𝟭𝟵𝟵𝟱 𝗼𝗿 𝟭𝟵𝟵𝟵. Pretending we do, and that we can time the market, is where investors get it wrong.

What we 𝘥𝘰 know is that adoption is happening faster than any previous cycle, and its impact will be profound. The leading AI companies are already operating at extraordinary scale:

✅ 𝗢𝗽𝗲𝗻𝗔𝗜: >$12bn in ARR (July 2025)

✅ 𝗔𝗻𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗼𝗽𝗶𝗰: projected ~$9B ARR by end-2025

✅ 𝗖𝘂𝗿𝘀𝗼𝗿: expected to reach ~$1B ARR by end-2025

𝗪𝗵𝗮𝘁 𝗳𝗲𝗲𝗹𝘀 𝗱𝗶𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗔𝗜 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗽𝗲𝗲𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝗮𝗱𝗼𝗽𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻.

In past technology revolutions, decades separated the 𝘪𝘯𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 phase (infrastructure build) from the 𝘥𝘦𝘱𝘭𝘰𝘺𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵 phase (value creation).

However, with AI, these phases are starting to 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗹𝗮𝗽. The same companies building the infrastructure are already monetising it. In Perez's terms, financial and productive capital are moving almost in parallel.

VenCap funds have exposure to 𝗼𝘃𝗲𝗿 𝘁𝘄𝗼-𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗿𝗱𝘀 𝗼𝗳 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗙𝗼𝗿𝘁𝘂𝗻𝗲 𝗔𝗜 𝟱𝟬. This exposure reflects a deliberate, long-term approach: consistent pacing across vintages and partnering with VC managers who've repeatedly backed the very best companies across multiple technology cycles.

We know that not all of these companies will ultimately succeed. 𝗔 𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻, 𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝗶𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗲𝘀, 𝘄𝗶𝗹𝗹 𝗯𝗲 𝗵𝗲𝗮𝗹𝘁𝗵𝘆. It will clear the brush for the businesses with durable models, real customers, and defensible technology. The challenge for investors isn't avoiding the correction, but 𝘀𝘁𝗮𝘆𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝗲𝗱 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵 𝗶𝘁.

🔍 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗮𝗸𝗲𝗮𝘄𝗮𝘆 𝗳𝗼𝗿 𝗟𝗣𝘀

You can't time technological revolutions, but you can position intelligently.

𝙎𝙪𝙨𝙩𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙖𝙗𝙡𝙚 𝙥𝙚𝙧𝙛𝙤𝙧𝙢𝙖𝙣𝙘𝙚 𝙬𝙤𝙣’𝙩 𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙚 𝙛𝙧𝙤𝙢 𝙩𝙧𝙮𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙩𝙤 𝙩𝙞𝙢𝙚 𝙢𝙖𝙧𝙠𝙚𝙩𝙨 𝙤𝙧 𝙥𝙞𝙘𝙠 𝙬𝙞𝙣𝙣𝙚𝙧𝙨 — 𝙞𝙩 𝙬𝙞𝙡𝙡 𝙘𝙤𝙢𝙚 𝙛𝙧𝙤𝙢 𝙢𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙩𝙖𝙞𝙣𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙙𝙞𝙨𝙘𝙞𝙥𝙡𝙞𝙣𝙚𝙙 𝙖𝙘𝙘𝙚𝙨𝙨 𝙩𝙤 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙡𝙚𝙖𝙙𝙞𝙣𝙜 𝙘