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Market Reflections 1st Quarter 2025 - Strip Out the Noise and Focus on the Facts

Dear Clients, Friends and Partners of Das Family Office,

We've just released our 1st quarter 'Reflections' with plenty of thoughts, information material and investment updates.

As we're living in turbulent times, it's important to strip out the noise and focus on the facts:

After this week's dramatic price actions, most of the excessive valuations of the Magnificent 7 and other popular technology stocks have moderated significantly.

The Nasdaq 100 index, which reflects many of these names, is now trading at a projected price earnings ratio of slightly less than 20, which translates into an equity risk premium of about 5% p.a..

This compares favourably to long dated U.S. government bonds or the breakeven inflation rate.

Therefore all our preferred global equity markets now look fairly valued or even cheap for long term investing (please see pages 10-12).

The technical picture of global equity markets points to an oversold situation with excessive volatility and heavy sales volumes.

The S&P volatility measure 'VIX' is trading at highly elevated levels of about 45, which hardly ever happens. The normal range is about 10 to 25.

Whilst we never know, what the future holds, current prices are close to prices seen in the August sell off of 2024 and peak levels of global equity markets in 2021. Technical analysts will look at these levels as strong support for the market.

This combination of emotions and attractive valuations should lead to a market stabilisation in the very near term.

As we are long term investors and are recommending to build portfolios based on an investor's time horizon (FairHorizon Concept), I see the current market turmoil as a buying opportunity.

I'm especially keen to look at some of the world's very profitable quality companies, including some of the Magnificent 7, which have finally reached valuation levels which allow for a long term return projection of 7% to 10% p.a.

I bought some units in one of my favourite stock picker funds, which is also part of many client portfolios, on Thursday. Unfortunately, this was one day too early, but I'm prepared to add to positions at current or slightly lower levels.

Please take a look at the abundance of information and do reach out to us for further discussions.

We're always here for you, especially also in times of fear and anxiety!

Yours Truly,

Mario Becker

Mario@dfo.sg


Founder and CEO of Das Family Office